Recent developments in Afghanistan coincides with the prophecy of Vladimir Lenin, who said, “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen”. In February 2020, the U.S government and Taliban signed a peace deal that laid the ground to end America’s war on terror.
The war started as an apoplectic response to 9/11, which led to far greater traumatic consequences. The threat perceptions that led them to war on terror in 2001, tattered in the 20-year long war, leaving behind loose ends and unanswerable questions.
Aristotle famously said, “nature abhors a vacuum”. Similarly, the withdrawal of the USA was filled by the Taliban’s expeditious swept to power which took the world by surprise, outpacing not only regional but global effects to be felt for decades.
On September 7, 2021, the Taliban announced their new interim government and urged the international community for cooperation and recognition. This shift of power in the graveyard of empires, Afghanistan, transformed the regional and global perspective of states towards it. Moreover, it highlighted Afghanistan’s mineral wealth.
Presently, Regional states are open for collaborations and connectivity with Afghanistan’s new interim government, in hopes of regional peace and stability after 40 years. Important stakeholders like Russia, China & Iran are keen on establishing friendly relations with the Afghan Taliban.
On the other hand, the failure of Indian backed Afghan government has hindered Delhi’s influence in Afghanistan. Congruently, Pakistan being the advocate of peace, invites the international community to engage with the new interim government. It Vowed to recognize the Taliban government if they abide by their commitments to the international community. Furthermore, Islamabad is engaging in dialogues with the Taliban for the sake of stability and peace in the region. Imminently, the world will be ready to engage with Afghanistan.
Despite the turmoil and war-scarred history, the regional and global toleration over Taliban-led government in Afghanistan is skeptical. This transition in changed narrative and open collaborations raises questions. Primarily, what were the incentives behind U.S withdrawal from Afghanistan, besides peace? Why are regional states inclined towards collaborations with Afghanistan? Yet, the answer is simple, Economic incentives! Regardless of the peace preaching and counterterrorism assurance in Afghanistan, the reason behind U.S withdrawal and regional friendly relations is impelled by economic interests.
According to the 2010 USGS survey report, it was revealed that west Afghanistan sits on one of the largest reserves of minerals which were estimated to be $1-3 trillion dollars and according to some, up to $5trillion dollars. These minerals include iron, copper, platinum, gold, silver, rare earth minerals, chiefly Lithium.
In the U.S geological survey, Mirza stated that “If Afghanistan has a few years of calm, allowing the development of its mineral resources, it could become one of the richest countries in the area within a decade”. What’s worth bearing in mind is, these mineral reserves worth trillions of dollars were tightly reined by the Taliban during the war era. Taliban made millions of dollars through mineral mining.
Ever since the cold war, the nature of war has evolved from military conflict to economic warfare. In the 21st century global economic shift, Natural resources are the driving force of today’s global economy, the more the better. In concomitance, Afghanistan is a game-changer. In the contemporary world, environmental degradation has become a matter of grave concern.
The automobile sector, being the foremost contributor to air pollution, burns most of the petroleum and is one of the cutting edges of global greenhouse gas emissions. Presently, the modern world is shifting from fossil burning to electrical mechanisms in order to tackle the climate crisis.
Lithium-ion, the lightest of the metals, is the grist of the mill. It is the fundamental component in the rechargeable batteries, which are indispensable for the electronic world, may it be phones, laptops, MacBooks, IPad, or hybrid and electrical cars. The demand for lithium is soaring by 8.9% annually because the mineral requirement of an electric car is six times more than an average car. As a result, Experts refer to Lithium as “the new oil”.
Lithium is found in various parts of the world. It is prominently abundant in Bolivia, Argentina & Chile –the Lithium Triangle– responsible for 75% of the world lithium supply. Analysts are at cold feet that the soaring consumption of lithium is leading to a global shortage. According to a report by The International Energy Agency (IEA), there’s a dire need to boost supplies of cobalt, nickel, copper, and lithium.
Concerning the foreseeable future, without the galore amount of supplies of rare earth minerals on a global level, efforts to grapple with climate change via clean technology would be unfeasible. Lately, a report by the U.S government was publicized which stated that “Lithium reserves in Afghanistan can surpass Bolivia, the present biggest supplier of lithium”. It may be too soon for lithium to turn the tables but in the foreseeable future, lithium will be an integral part of the economy.
The USGS estimates the Khanneshin deposits in Helmand province will yield 1.1.-1.4 million metric tons of REEs. Some reports estimate Afghanistan’s REE resources are among the largest on earth. Rare earth minerals are fundamental in the modern-day tech-driven world. REEs are the pillars of the technological world. U.S. Congressional findings have called REEs critical to national security. Presently, China has an upper edge in the tech world because of REEs.
The Taiwan Semi-Conductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) is one of the top leading manufacturers of high-end chips. TSMC took over the tech world after the launch of Huawei 5G. That being said, not only in the economy but REEs also play a crucial role in the military, may it be military muscle or military communication structure.
The future of the world economy and military might as well reside in the war-torn mountains of Afghanistan.
The perplexity of Mineral Mining in Afghanistan
In the aftermath of the war, Afghanistan dwells in severe crises mode. Due to lack of sophisticated infrastructure, zero check and balance, fiscal regimes, Afghan mineral reserves have been a victim of exploitation. Yet, most of the valuable minerals remain untapped solely because of no advanced mining technology. If Afghanistan’s new interim government provides security and a well-to-do environment, these untapped minerals can overcome its poverty.
Mining can be an economic opportunity for Afghanistan. The geo-strategic location of Afghanistan, connecting it from East to West wing and its world largest mineral reserves, can be a magnet for foreign investments. Paves a way for economic giants to invest in Afghanistan’s world-class resources Which otherwise, are being exploited through illegal means.
So what’s next?
On June 11-13, the United States and Group of 7 (G7) held a meeting in Cornwell, England. The meeting announced a new initiative for global infrastructure investment. To counter strategic competition with China’s “Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)”. Biden introduced an alternative initiative “Build Back Better World (B3W)” to help meet the needs of third world countries.
The project is described as “a values-driven, high-standard, and transparent infrastructure partnership led by major democracies to help narrow the $40+ trillion infrastructure need in the developing world.”
On the contrary, over the years China has built a soft image, precisely in the realms of the economy. China reformed its policies and stepped into the international economic competition by initiating the geo-economic project, “Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)” which includes 790 projects with an estimated cost of $4–8 trillion. The global Chinese influence through the BRI initiative became a matter of grave concern for the leading nations.
The two grand economic projects BRI and B3W may lead U.S and China into a new hybrid cold war in the 21st century. China’s economic influence is sabotaging U.S hegemony. Since super power has to maintain its supremacy, U.S is adopting economic counter measures to knock China down. In this new economic warfare, U.S will restructure its capital into the new B3W initiative to pull back BRI.
To ensure B3W development, Afghanistan stands significant. Providing sufficient resources which conclude America’s dependency on China for any economic assistance, including leading chip industry of China. A strategic and economic alliance between the two old war rivals will also be a way to sustainability and peace.
Considering this new economic warfare, After the episode of U.S withdrawal and the new Taliban interim government, China eyes the trillion dollars’ worth of minerals in Afghanistan. Being the headman in mining and in order to ensure its influence over the global market, China is keen to invest in the mineral mining zones of Afghanistan. Kabul has always been willing to be a part of OBOR.
If CPEC includes Afghanistan, Pakistan’s Gwadar Port will abet lithium and other rare earth minerals export to China. Through CPEC endorsement, Afghanistan can quell the issue of railway routes in mineral-rich provinces. What’s more, Afghanistan will also provide access to China’s new trade routes to not only the Middle East and Europe but also to the African continent.
Unquestionably, this strategic competition between US-China will be highly reliant on Afghanistan.
In the bigger picture, if we look ahead, the global economy will be ten times more tech-driven as of now. In time to come, Afghanistan will have to choose its new allies in the development of its mineral. This mineral-based economic opportunity will also be a game-changer for Afghanistan as well.
Read More: Growing Middle Eastern ties; A piece paradox
References:
https://www.mining.com/web/bolivia-revolutionaries-lithium-miners-go-die/
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