WARSAW: Vladimir Putin is eyeing the conflict between Israel and Iran as an opportunity to thrust himself to the forefront of the international stage, more than three years into his invasion of Ukraine.
The Russian president has pitched himself as a possible mediator — though Moscow’s closeness to Iran and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raise doubts about what kind of role he can play, experts say.
The assault on Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza have strained Moscow’s traditionally good relations with Israel, home to a large Russian-born community. At the same time, Russia has deepened military ties with Iran.
But while Moscow was quick to condemn Israel’s strikes on Iran last Friday, Putin also wasted little time phoning both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to offer his role as a peacemaker.
Moscow’s close alliance with Tehran could
disqualify it from playing the role of trusted
mediator
“By positioning itself as an indispensable intermediary, Moscow aims to reassert diplomatic relevance despite its pariah status in Europe,” said Nicole Grajewski, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
It also wants to protect its ally Tehran, facing a potentially transformative military clash. “Russia does not want to see regime change in Iran, especially if it results in a pro-Western government,” she added.
Moscow and Tehran in January inked a far-ranging strategic partnership agreement to broaden military ties, and Kyiv and its allies have long accused Iran of supplying Russia with drones and short-range missiles.
‘Not objective’
Russia is also seeking to regain influence in the Middle East following the fall of ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
“The regime change in Syria caused it to lose ground,” said Tatiana Kastoueva-Jean of the French Institute of International Relations. Russia has previously used the region to boost its international standing.
After being hit with sanctions for the annexation of Crimea, Russia “emerged from international isolation” by “becoming indispensable in the region,” Kastoueva-Jean said. Specifically, by backing Assad in the Syrian civil war and supporting the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal.
However, Moscow’s much closer alliance with Tehran this time around could disqualify it from playing the role of trusted mediator.
“Since Russia is seen as Iran’s ally, and they have a strategic partnership agreement, such mediation would not inspire confidence in Europe. Nor in Israel,” Russian political analyst Konstantin Kalachev said. “A mediator should not sympathise with one side,” he added.
French President Emmanuel Macron is among those to have pushed back at the idea of a mediation role for Putin.
“I do not believe that Russia, which is now engaged in a high-intensity conflict and has decided not to respect the UN Charter for several years now, can be a mediator,” he said over the weekend. Many others also see the prospect of Putin’s involvement as worrying.
“It would legitimise Russia as an indispensable great power at a time when it is waging the biggest war of aggression on European soil since World War II,” said Anna Borshchevskaya, an analyst at The Washington Institute.
‘Woo Trump’
Asked if Moscow had received a response to its overtures, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia saw “a reluctance, on the part of Israel, to resort to any mediation services or to embark on a peaceful path towards a settlement.” Putin is also believed to be looking beyond just the Middle East.
His offer to mediate is seen as an attempt to shift the narrative with US President Donald Trump, who has grown increasingly frustrated over Moscow’s ongoing attacks on Ukraine and failure to strike a peace deal. “Russia is trying to woo Trump on issues that go beyond Ukraine,” said Kastoueva-Jean.
Trump on Wednesday rolled back his earlier openness to Putin playing middleman, telling the Kremlin chief to end his war on Ukraine before getting involved in the Iran-Israel conflict.
“He actually offered to help mediate, I said: ‘Do me a favor, mediate your own. Let’s mediate Russia first, okay?’” Trump told reporters at the White House. “I said ‘Vladimir, let’s mediate Russia first, you can worry about this later.’”
