25 year later, welcome to 21st century. Where Putin proved to be a man of word. The idea that US can march NATO up to Russian doorstep and they are going to do nothing about it, its lunacy.
In 1997 when Joe Biden (then senator of the foreign relations committee the US) was questioned about Russia in a conference, he stated, the only thing that could provoke a vigorous and hostile reaction in Russia would be the expansion of NATO into eastern Europe.
“If there was ever anything, it would be that”
Biden added, the one place where the greatest consternation would be caused in the short term for admission, having nothing to do with the merit and preparedness of the country to come in, would be, to admit the Baltic states now in terms of NATO – Russian, US – Russian relations. And if there was ever anything that was going to tip the balance if it were to be tipped, in terms of a vigorous and hostile reaction. I don’t mean military in Russia, it would be that.
Biden was right. Russia doesn’t want NATO expansion, as it’s not in their security interests. And if ever the US did so, Russia would have to look towards China. At that time, nobody in the US congress including Joe Biden believed, that it could ever be an option.
25 years later, welcome to the 21st century. Where Putin proved to be a man of word. The idea that the US can march NATO up to the Russian doorstep and they are going to do nothing about it, is lunacy. Just like the US is sensitive about its western hemisphere and validates to react to any intervention by foreign powers with aggression. The same way Russia has been and will always be protective about its “Eastern hemisphere” (Ukraine).
In the recent developments on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, western powers imposed financial and economic sanctions on Moscow, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. China maintained its neutrality by not joining sanctions on Russia, stating “they are ineffective and will only harm the general population”. Perhaps, China’s refusal to join in Western sanctions against Russia can be intended for geopolitical motives or economic concerns.
WILL CHINA’S NON-PARTICIPATION MAKES A DIFFERENCE?
According to the data based on 2019 stats, China before the pandemic remained the largest trading partner of Russia. With 19% of its imports and 14% of Russian exports to China. The imports include crude oil and refined petroleum which for now is exempted from European Union sanctions. China’s pre-pandemic trading was three times bigger with Russia in comparison to US and Russia trade. And approximately seven times greater than the United Kingdom and Russia.
In comparison to Russia’s trade with Europe, it’s many times bigger than China. Diverting its export towards China wouldn’t be easy for Russia. One of the major constraints lies in the pipeline capacity and China’s refining capacity.
China’s neutrality or non-participation and its rejection to participate in Western sanctions against the US might not make a major difference. However, the contrary repercussions of sanctions plus invasion/war for the poor class in developing countries and even in under developing countries remains bonafide.
SANCTIONS’ CONSEQUENCES ON EUROPE
Supporters of further severe sanctions needs to emphasize on the potential secondary economic consequences. Sanctions on Great powers like Russia exerts consequences globally. Sanctioning Russia will unleash global economic shortcomings. One of them, is inflation. Since Ukraine and Russia are the global breadbaskets, the reduced export of food and critical agriculture based goods will harshly impact not only Europe but the global market. According to US Department of Agriculture, the wheat export from the two countries makes up to 29% of the global export market. Since February 2022, grain price has inflated up to 77% in foresight that supplies may drop owing to the conflict and sanctions. Leading to higher food cost. If West targets Russia’s energy sector, it will have consequences on the great powers as well. Because dependency on Middle East and other region will simply lead to more and more inflation.
If sanctions fail to economically pressurize Russia, to stop Ukraine invasion. This will have severe implications for the general population’s livelihood. And mind that, this general population will not just be from Russia but the entire civilized population of Europe, leading to global distress. Putin believes, the sanctions imposed against Russia will rebound against the West, leading to higher food and energy prices. This will help Moscow to emerge even stronger since it’s the breadbasket of Europe. Russia calls its “special military operation in Ukraine” as need of the hour. Russia is not a country that would in any way compromise its state’s security and sovereignty for any short-term economic gain.
These sanctions will not only hurt Russia but the world economy and that’s in no one’s interests.
CHINA’S PRO-RUSSIAN ANTI-AMERICAN PSEUDO NEUTRALITY?
West believes that China is upholding a “Pro Russian anti-American pseudo neutrality” in Russia Ukraine Crisis.
When Russia and China came under Western pressure on multiple grounds, human rights, trade sanctions may it be IPT or military weapon export, the two states tightened cooperation. Earlier in February 2022, President Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin announced a strategic partnership aiming to counter United States influence, calling it a “friendship with no limits”. The two states on the opening day of the Winter Olympics affirmed to back each other over standoffs on Ukraine and Taiwan vowing to collaborate more against the West.
China maintains that the war is the fault of America, the fault of the West for expanding NATO towards the East. Russia has every right to live in a secure Europe with its own security guarantees. China believes that state media has been putting out Russian propaganda. And Russian troops are behaving with extraordinary restraints and only there to dislodge Nazis from Ukraine. Americans should stop pouring fuel into the fire, by sending arms to drag on the war because they want to suffer to help them in dismantling Russia.
Also Read: Russia War With Ukraine: Is Ukraine Putin’s Western Hemisphere?
The US is still prevailing the cold war tactics with cold war mentality and it’s time for the West to realize that the cold war is long gone. Providing armaments to Ukraine, giving military training to volunteers from Ukraine, and even sanctioning Russia is not a way out. This will only blow out the situation into catastrophic consequences. Which will tear down the entire world.
Russia Counts On Beijing Help
In the wake of the West sanctioning Russia, Putin has asked China for military and economic assistance.
For very obvious reasons China is not delighted with the Russia Ukraine Crisis. Being bound into all kinds of global supply China and having the strongest economy in the world, China doesn’t like Chaos. On one hand, China is indulged in one of a kind stable commercial trading order. But on the other hand, Chinese scholars do believe that this American caused Russia Ukraine Crisis will work out nicely for China. How so? America will be distracted and tied up with its backbone (Europe). This will leave America less time to interfere in China’s backyard (Taiwan) in Asia. China is a very cautious power, a new superpower.
Signing a strategic partnership pact, being friends since 1950, Russia and China are hands down going to back each other. Both states stand in the same shoes and see the world in a similar way. When it comes to American interference in Ukraine and Taiwan the two states’ leaders will not let it slide away. Comparing the Chinese and Russian leader stances, Russia loud and clear stated that “Ukraine isn’t a proper country its part of Russia” and China states that “Taiwan is the province of China that needs to come back to the motherland”.
Also Read: THE NEW ECONOMIC WORLD ORDER
It should be very clear to the world, that invading other people’s countries, violating their sovereignty, doing their social engineering will only welcome aggression. Just like invading US Western-Hemisphere will be considered a “Hostile Act” against the sovereignty of the US. Being the hegemon and being the security guarantee of its allies and partners, America needs to reassure its standing in the world by behaving like a responsible actor and not a “Conflict Entrepreneur”.
IS THIS A BEGINNING OF A NEW WORLD ORDER?
The Russia-Ukraine crisis has changed the dynamics of the international system and so international politics. It is a big moment for China to show its hands. This is the moment for China and Russia, two big autocracies with a similar world views and a historic struggle with America, to back each other.
The rule-based world order after the second world war is ousted for Russia and China. And the West interference in Ukraine has ripped the band-aid off. China and Russia are very well prepared to challenge the old world order.
