In the event that “appropriate policies and institutions” are in place, according to a research paper that Goldman Sachs released on Tuesday, Pakistan will be the sixth-largest economy in the world by the year 2075.
The paper, titled “The Path to 2075” and written by economists Tadas Gedminas and Kevin Daly, predicted that China, India, the United States, Indonesia, and Nigeria would be the five largest economies by 2075.
For almost two decades, Goldman Sachs has projected the long-term growth of 70 emerging and developed economies. At first, it focused on the economies of the BRICs.
Their most recent study includes projections for 104 nations through 2075.
Goldman Sachs predicts that Pakistan, along with Egypt and Nigeria, could become one of the world’s largest economies in the next 50 years due to its rapidly expanding population.
The study predicts that Pakistan’s Real GDP will have reached $12.7 trillion by that point, and its GDP per capita will have reached $27,100.
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However, it is anticipated that these numbers will be less than a third of the size of China, India, and the United States. India’s Genuine Gross domestic product in 2075 is projected at $52.5 trillion and per capita Gross domestic product at $31,300.
The economists highlight “environmental catastrophe” and “populist nationalism” as major threats to their projections.
These projections could be significantly skewed by climate change, particularly for countries like Pakistan that have geographies that are particularly vulnerable, unless a path to sustainable growth is ensured through a globally coordinated response.
According to the report, if populist nationalists gain power in a lot of countries, it could lead to more protectionism, which could reverse globalization and raise income inequality between countries.
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Other key projections
Global growth on a declining path
According to the paper, global growth has slowed from an average of 3.6% per year over the previous ten years to 3.2 percent, and the slowdown has been fairly widespread.
The project’s worldwide development will average 2.8pc somewhere in the range of 2024 and 2029 and will be on a bit-by-bit declining way.
The rise of emerging markets
According to the paper, global growth has slowed from an average of 3.6% per year over the previous ten years to 3.2 percent, and the slowdown has been fairly widespread.
They project worldwide development will average 2.8pc somewhere in the range of 2024 and 2029 and will be on a bit by bit declining way.
Declining global population
According to UN projections, population growth will fall to close to zero by 2075, driving the decline in global growth. The paper states that this is a “good problem to have” because it reduces environmental damage but could cause financial issues due to high healthcare costs and an aging population.
US won’t repeat exceptional growth
Due to potential growth remaining “significantly lower” than that of large developing economies, the United States will not be able to replicate its robust performance over the previous decade.
In the next ten years, it is also anticipated that the US dollar will lose value.
Less global inequality, more local inequality
While income inequality has decreased between economies as a result of the convergence of emerging markets, it has increased within the majority of economies. Globalization’s future faces a significant obstacle in this situation.
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Source: Dawn News
