Al Qaeda is present in a minimum of 15 Afghan provinces, primarily within the eastern, southern, and southeastern regions, says a United Nations report prepared for the Safety Council.
The twenty-eighth report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, submitted to the council in the week, contains the newest information on ISIL (Daesh), Al Qaeda, and their affiliates.
The team has been established under a UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution and its reports are printed in altogether official languages of the planet body.
The report notes that despite a US-Taliban peace deal, signed in Doha in February last year, the safety situation in Afghanistan “remains fragile, with uncertainty surrounding the social process and a risk of further deterioration”.
The report says militant outfit operates under Taliban protection from Kandahar, Helmand, and Nimruz provinces Referring to the militant group’s weekly newsletter Thabat, the UN report points out that Al Qaeda within the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) operates under Taliban protection from Kandahar, Helmand, and Nimruz provinces.
Since the death of its leader Asim Umar in 2019, AQIS has been led by Osama Mahmood, who isn’t listed in UN documents for terrorists but was the group’s spokesperson before he was elevated to the chief slot.
Asim Umar was originally from India and spent years in Miramshah, a former militant stronghold in erstwhile Fata, before moving to Afghanistan.
The UN report says that AQIS consists mainly of Afghan and Pakistani nationals, but also individuals from Bangladesh, India, and Myanmar. On March 30, AQIS commander Dawlat Bek Tajiki was also killed by Afghan forces in Gyan district of Paktika province.
The UN report notes that Ayman al-Zawahiri, who leads AQIS’s parent organization Al Qaeda, is assessed by UN member states to be alive but ailing in Afghanistan. Sayf al-Adl, his presumable successor, reportedly remains in Iran.
“Member states differ on what al-Adl’s options would be if he was called upon to succeed al-Zawahiri, but most assess that he would need to move which basing himself in Afghanistan won’t be an option,” the report adds.
In its report on Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, the UN team warns that TTP “continues to pose a threat to the region with the unification of splinter groups and increasing cross-border attacks”.
“TTP has increased its financial resources from extortion, smuggling, and taxes. consistent with one member state, Mufti Khalid, one among the leaders of TTP, was killed by Jamaat-ul-Ahrar in an indoor dispute over resource allocation in Kunar province, Afghanistan, in May,” the report adds.
“The threat from organized individuals planning complex attacks remains,” warns the UN report, adding that in February this year 14 people were arrested in Denmark and Germany for planning attacks with explosive chemicals.
Authorities in France arrested individuals of Chechen and Pakistani origin with profiles just like the individuals who had perpetrated or planned attacks in France last year. They weren’t found to be acting under direct orders from ISIL or Al Qaeda.
Leadership, but were inspired by propaganda and native community members who promoted radical ideology. Two cells consisting of people of Chechen origin were dismantled in eastern France in April and should this year.
The team writes that in its efforts to resurge, ISIL-K has prioritized the recruitment and training of latest supporters and its leaders “hope to draw in intransigent Taliban and other militants” who reject the US-Taliban agreement. They also want to recruit fighters from Syria, Iraq, and other conflict zones.
Estimates of the strength of ISIL-K range widely, with one UN member state reporting between 500 and 1,500 fighters and another stating that it’s going to rise to as many as 10,000 over the medium term. Another member state stressed that ISIL-K was largely underground and clandestine. Its leader Shahab al-Muhajir cooperates with Sheikh Tamim, head of the al-Sadiq office. Tamim and his office are tasked by the ISIL core with overseeing the network connecting ISIL-K with ISIL presences within the wider region.
The UN monitors warn that a Central Asian group called Khatib Imam al-Bukhari (KIB) receives support in Afghanistan through hawala channels from its leadership in Idlib. This incentivizes the Afghan affiliate to grow its numbers and undertake more high-profile attacks using suicide bombers. KIB leader Dilshod Dekhanov, an Uzbek national, recently requested that the Taliban leadership unite all Central Asian groups in Afghanistan under his leadership.
Other Central Asian groups, like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, stated that they might support unification only under the leadership of Ilimbek Mamatov, the leader of the Islamic Jihad Group (IJG) who enjoys significant authority among Central Asian fighters.
“The Taliban have yet to rule on the matter but has reduced its financial allowances to the groups to A level that they consider insufficient,” the UN report says.
In recent months, however, the Taliban have involved the Central Asian groups in its expanding combat operations within the north. IJG participates in operations in the Imam Sahib district of Kunduz province, providing expertise in military tactics and the manufacture of improvised explosive devices.
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