Military tensions between China and Taiwan are at peak in four decades, warned the island’s defence minister on Wednesday, adding Beijing would be in a position to launch a full-scale invasion in 2025.
Taiwan survives under the constant threat of invasion by China, which believes that the self-ruled democratic island as its territory to be seized one day, by force if needed.
Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng offered his assessment after around 150 Chinese warplanes — a record number that included nuclear-capable bombers — made incursions into Taiwan’s air defence zone starting on Friday.
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“For the military, the current situation is the grimmest in the more than 40 years since I joined the service,” Chiu told parliament.
He warned that even “slight carelessness” or “miscalculation” could trigger a crisis and that China would be able to launch an invasion of the island in four years.
“It is capable now but it has to calculate what it would cost, and what kind of outcome it wishes to achieve,” Chiu said.
“After 2025, the cost and losses would be lowered to a minimum,” he added, without providing further details.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, who termed the seizure of Taiwan “inevitable”, described relations with Taipei as “grim” in a letter to the island’s newly elected main opposition leader last week.
Beijing has ramped up military, diplomatic and economic pressure since Tsai Ing-wen became Taiwan’s president in 2016, as she views the island as “already independent” and not part of “one China”.
“Actions taken by… (China) have seriously damaged peace and stability in the region,” Tsai said.
“I want to tell the authority in Beijing that it has to exercise restraint to avoid potential conflicts due to miscalculations or accidents.” Recently Tsai stated that Taiwan will “do whatever it takes” to defend against threats, but seeks peaceful coexistence with China. The Chinese flights have also provoked criticism by Washington.
President Joe Biden told reporters on Tuesday, when asked about the situation, that he had discussed Taiwan with Xi.
“We will abide by the Taiwan agreement. That’s where we are and we made it clear that I don’t think he should be doing anything other than abiding by the agreement,” he stated.
US officials later elucidated that the president was not referring to a new conversation. Biden and Xi spoke last month and exchanged a range of issues in their call.
Biden appeared to be referring to the US policy in place since Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979.
In accordance with the arrangement, the United States provides Taiwan with military equipment to defend itself, in an unofficial, non-diplomatic relationship.
Tsai’s spokesman said Taiwan had reached out to Washington after Biden’s remarks and was assured that US policy on the island “remained unchanged”.
Last year, a record 380 Chinese military jets infiltrated Taiwan’s defence zone. As of October this year, the number has exceeded 600.
The zone is not the same as Taiwan’s territorial airspace yet incorporates a far greater area that overlaps with part of China’s own air defence identification zone.
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